Introduction to Supply Chain Management

Homework 1 (25 points)

For all the problems, to receive full scores, you have to show your complete and accurate work. If you only provide the final answers without showing your

computations, you will not be assigned a full score (or you will miss the opportunity of receiving partial credit).  All homework is to be turned in on time through

D2L.

Problem 1: Line Balancing (11 points)
Employees at Ford work from 6am to 2pm Monday through Friday.  Everyone on the assembly line is allowed a 30 minute lunch and two 20 minute breaks.  Other cross-

trained associates cover lunches and breaks for the associates on the assembly line so the line doesn’t stop.  After three weeks at Ford, you record the processes of

the assembly line are laid out in the following manner:
Task        Predecessor        Average Time (sec)
A        none            50
B        none            40
C        A            20
D        C            45
E        C            20
F        D            25
G        E            10
H        B, F, and G        35

The Plant Manager needs the line to achieve an output of 400 units per day.
a)    Compute the Takt time for the line (2 points).
b)    What is the theoretical minimum number of workstations? (2 points)
c)    Draw the precedence diagram with the processing times for each task displayed (3 points).
d)    Assign tasks to work stations using the largest eligible task heuristic rule to break any ties (2 points).
e)    Compute the efficiency and percent idle time for the system (2 points).

Problem 2: Forecasting (8 points)
Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug
Units Sold    2460    2790    2580    2910    3150    2890

Given these sales figures over the last 6 months, your boss needs you to create a forecast model that can be used for the next 6 months.  Use three different

forecasting methods (last period, 2 period moving average and 3 period moving average) to determine which forecasting method would be best to forecast sales for the

next 6 months.  For your measure of “best”, recommend to your boss the method with the lowest mean absolute deviation (MAD).
a)    Calculate the MAD for each of the 3 forecasts (6 points).
b)    Provide your September forecast (2 points).

Problem 3: Forecast Accuracy (6 points)
Your company released a new product in August this year.  Prior to August, you asked two experts at the company, Katelyn and Christopher, for their forecasted sales of

the new product.   Katelyn forecasted that week 1 would be 5,000 units and sales would increase by 1,000 units each week for the first 12 weeks.  Christopher

forecasted that week 1 would be 7,000 units and sales would increase by 500 units each week for the first 12 weeks.  The product has been on the market for 6 weeks and

below is the actual units sold.
Week    Actual Sales (units)
1    4,900
2    7,200
3    6,800
4    6,300
5    9,100
6    9,500

a)    Calculate the MFE for each expert’s forecast (2 points).
b)    Calculate the MAPE for each expert’s forecast (2 points).
c)    Which expert had the better forecast and why? (2 points).

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